The Artifact Was Not the Whole Product
My 2022 prediction anticipated modular consulting delivery, but underestimated the capabilities surrounding the deliverable.
Capability & Consequence
Long-form, argument-led analysis with explicit implications and falsification tests.
My 2022 prediction anticipated modular consulting delivery, but underestimated the capabilities surrounding the deliverable.
Owning an advisory product does not settle who controls its distribution, client context or learning from deployment.
Automating junior delivery can improve current margins while removing experience needed to develop future judgement.
Long-lived products need AI components that can be maintained and replaced throughout the support obligation.
Faster generation creates value only after the cost of verification, acceptance and exceptions is accounted for.
Model capability, enterprise adoption and financial value move on different schedules. The investment case needs to connect them.
Long-term data centre commitments depend on short hardware cycles. Each party needs to price the exposure it actually holds.
The SpaceX–Bloom acquisition thesis depends on benefits that require ownership and on risks the acquisition would still leave unresolved.
Executive hiring should test whether the conditions behind a candidate's scale credentials still fit the mandate.
Costco illustrates how a controlled transaction path could support several consequential AI workflows with distinct decision authorities.
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